Wall Street Weather

The Moon is a primary indicator of market sentiment. The Moon’s relationship with the Sun describes the level of confidence investors have in their convictions.

New Moons represent new beginnings. Although the market certainly does not always follow this pattern, confidence tends to increase as the Moon’s light increases, peaks around the time of the Full Moon, and begins to wane as the Moon’s light decreases during the latter half of the Moon’s cycle.

The planetary energies at the New Moon influence the entire monthly cycle. This month’s New Moon occurs April 21, 2012 at 3:18 AM in Taurus. Each year when the Sun transits Taurus (April 19 – May 20), the focus centers on net worth and self worth. The Moon represents instinctual behaviors and what we need to feel emotionally and physically secure. It is for this very reason the Moon feels particularly content in Taurus, the sign that accumulates money and material resources to create security and comfort.

“Sell in May and Go Away”
Just as market sentiment does not necessarily correlate to the Moon’s phases, the often-quoted expression “sell in May and go away” represents a tendency that describes the seasonal planetary energies.

Known as the “Halloween indicator,” buying begins around Halloween when the Sun transits Taurus’ opposite sign Scorpio which rules jointly held assets and liabilities. (The Taurus Full Moon occurs when the Sun is in Scorpio.) Bullish sentiment peaks in May when the Sun transits Taurus, the sign of the bull. This is the time to take profits and “go away” until the Fall. (The Scorpio Full Moon occurs when the Sun transits Taurus.) The New York Stock Exchange was founded when the Sun, Mercury (trading) and Venus was in Taurus, an indication that historically investing in the U.S. stock market tends to be the best vehicle for asset appreciation.

From a planetary perspective, whether this adage works in any given calendar year depends upon the influence of other planetary energies and whether Taurus’ planetary ruler Venus is a morning or evening “star.”

The Long Transit of Venus in Gemini
Taurus is ruled by Venus, the planetary energy of money, banking, and asset valuations. The market’s highs and lows each year tend to correlate to the cycle of Venus. The Dow and S&P closed at multiyear highs on April 2, the last day Venus was in Taurus. (The Nasdaq closed at its highest level this year March 26 when the Moon was in Taurus.)

Stocks, Treasuries, and major currencies reversed direction when Venus entered Gemini April 3 as Gemini’s ruler Mercury was about to reverse direction after being retrograde since March 12. Gemini/Mercury rules communications and commerce. Venus in Gemini squaring Neptune in Pisces and Mars retrograde in Virgo created confusion as to whether to believe that economic conditions are as healthy as they initially appeared. The April 3 release of the March 13 FOMC Minutes demonstrated once again the market’s addiction to central bank stimulus. Economic reports have come in mixed or weaker than anticipated. The market has experienced a mild decline since the April 6 Full Moon in Venus-ruled Libra.

Venus has been “out-of-bounds” since entering Gemini April 3 (through June 3).(1) Venus operating out-of-bounds tends to bring out the most extreme behavior of this planet’s energy, contributing to the Dow’s spate of intraday and/or closing triple digit moves since April 3. (Venus will be at maximum out-of-bounds May 3-6.)

Being the first sign in the earth element, Taurus energy is practical and grounded by what is experienced through the senses. If you haven’t already done so, go outside and look west shortly after sunset and you will see Venus. The brightest and most beautiful “star” in the evening sky will reach its greatest brilliancy the evening of April 30. (Click here for a current sky map).

Venus will be in Gemini until August 7 due to Venus being retrograde May 15 until June 27. Venus will disappear from the evening sky at the end of May. Her time as an evening star has ended as Venus prepares to conjoin the Sun June 5. This rare Transit of Venus is the second pairing of Venus in Gemini transiting the Sun that began the last time Venus was retrograde in Gemini in 2004.

Venus in Gemini and Venus retrograde tend to be more of a traders market as the changeable nature of Gemini requires being extra nimble to take advantage of the moves. May 15, June 5, and June 27 can indicate directional changes in the market. Venus in Gemini and Venus becoming a morning star and its potential influence on the stock market is the subject of my next post.

USA
In the chart for the New Moon set for the USA, the Taurus New Moon in its natural “home” sector reflects improving economic conditions. The New Moon favorably aspects Neptune in Pisces and forms a grand earth trine with Mars in Virgo and Pluto in Capricorn. These energies indicate that companies are hiring workers and spending money on technology, equipment, and supplies. Exports expand with Jupiter in Taurus and Venus ruling this sector of the chart with Venus located in the sector ruling the land indicates more foreign production is being done on U.S. soil. The Taurus Moon rules the sector representing employment, reflecting that workers are earning a bit more money.

Although not nearly as powerful as the grand earth trine that existed from November 2011 which peaked in mid-March, these energies offer the potential for the market to regain what it had lost since early April. However, the New Moon opposing Saturn in Libra decreases the likelihood the market will reach new highs now.

Mercury conjoins Uranus in Aries for the third and final time April 22 before moving forward into new territory April 23. (Mercury and Uranus previously conjoined on March 5 and 18). While the nation’s opinion about the economic outlook and the market could veer to either extreme, the overall trend tends to be favorable until Venus stations retrograde May 15.

Earth Day
Venus rules love, beauty, and harmony; the Sun rules the heart and matters of the heart. The Sun in Taurus is the heart of spring in the northern hemisphere when nature is her most beautiful. Taurus is the first sign in the earth element, and Earth Day is celebrated on April 22. (For more on Earth Day see my post, “The Energies of Earth Day.”) When politicians propose peeling back environmental regulations, look at Beijing as an example of putting short term profits ahead of the air we breathe, the water we drink, and the food we eat that is still grown in nature and not concocted inside a corporate chemistry lab.

Once our Earth’s natural resources have been contaminated and/or depleted, it is too late to get back what we have taken for granted. Besides, there are cost savings and money to be made in developing clean technologies!

Largest Potential Market Moving Days: April 25, May 3, 4. All times listed are EDT.

Monday, April 23, 2012
Mondays are ruled by the Moon and the week begins with the Moon in Taurus which tends to put banks and financials in focus.

The Moon enters Gemini at 1:05 PM until Thursday at 1:42 AM, increasing the tendency for the potential for the major indices to become choppy and mixed as the market reacts to conflicting pieces of news on multiple fronts.

The Sun harmonizes with Mars in Virgo, putting the focus on leaders’ efforts to grow the economy through job creation. (The Sun in Capricorn harmonized with Mars on January 12 before Mars turned retrograde. President Obama brought industry leaders together for an “insourcing American jobs” conference.)

Positive bias.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Choppy/mixed to positive.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Mercury in Aries squaring Pluto in Capricorn indicates news related to interest rates, debt, M&A, and information that had previously been kept secret.

The FOMC announcement is scheduled to be released at 12:30 PM, followed by committee members’ economic forecasts and Chairman Bernanke’s news conference at 2:00 PM. Mercury conjoins the Fed’s progressed Sun in Aries and influences how the Fed’s actions are perceived by the public.(2)

Although Mars-ruled Aries is always itching to do “something,” the only real new message emanating from the FOMC statement or Chairman Bernanke could relate to what the Fed might do after Operation Twist ends in June. Mercury square Pluto relates to manipulation through communication. At this point the Fed is relying on “talk therapy” to keep asset prices (Fedspeak for stock prices) valued higher than they would be without the Fed’s extreme accommodation.

Basing equity prices on a return comparable to the 10 year Treasury is only as good as the time remaining for the 10 year note at the current rate. In order for equity prices to remain at the current levels, either earnings would have to catch up with current prices or the 10 year would have to remain in the low 2% range for the foreseeable future.

Positive.

Thursday, April 26, 2012
The Moon moves into its home sign Cancer at 1:42 AM until 3:05 AM Saturday. The market might be seeking shelter under a security blanket. Negative.

Friday, April 27, 2012
Positive, then turns mixed to moderately negative before reversing in the afternoon to close positive.

Monday, April 30, 2012
The Moon in Leo increases the desire to speculate. There is the potential for leadership changes which could relate to M&A activity. The Moon enters Virgo at 7:02 PM until Wednesday night.

Positive.

Tuesday, May 1, 2012
The Moon in Virgo indicates the market’s mood is dependent on economic and earnings reports meeting/exceeding expectations.

Positive and strongest early but weakens as the day progresses; closes negative.

Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Market digests a mixture of positive and negative news; closes mixed.

Thursday, May 3, 2012
The Moon is in Libra since 10:04 PM last night until later Friday evening. The influence of Mercury favorably aspecting Venus enhanced by the Moon in Venus-ruled Libra could bring better than expected news today and tomorrow.

Positive.

Happy Birthday, Daddy!

Friday, May 4, 2012
Fridays are ruled by Venus which accentuates the energies of the Moon in Libra and Mercury’s favorably aspecting Venus.

March’s disappointing drop in the number of new jobs created will likely be revised upward in April’s employment report this morning as the April report could meet or slightly exceed consensus estimates.

Positive.

Emotions can become intense as the Moon enters Scorpio at 10:20 PM leading into Saturday’s Full Moon that will appear to be larger than normal as it rises above the eastern horizon in the early evening when the Moon is at its closest distance to Earth.

Part II of the Taurus Moon Cycle Forecast will cover the May 5 Scorpio Full Moon through May 19.

(1) A planet is “out-of-bounds” when it has moved beyond the maximum boundaries of its normal degree of declination (23 degrees 27 minutes) which represents the celestial latitude of a planet north or south of the celestial equator.

(2) Progressions move the natal planets and chart positions forward in time, symbolizing the individual or entity’s progression through life.